Alex Padilla U.S. Senator for California

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff (both D-Calif.) joined Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) in pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on its plans to crack down on prediction markets now offering event contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires. 

In light of recent wildfires in California and ongoing ones across the nation, the Senators demanded action from the CFTC following public reporting that highlighted public safety and insider trading concerns allowing prediction market platforms to offer bets on natural disasters such as wildfires. 

In their letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, Senators pressed the CFTC to swiftly tackle unrestricted betting on wildfires and put in place common-sense guardrails to prevent gamblers from making a profit as wildfires threaten communities nationwide. 

“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” wrote the Senators. “There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.” 

Padilla has consistently fought for protections of wildfire victims and prevention of future wildfires. This month, the Senate unanimously passed the Doug LaMalfa Federal Disaster Tax Relief Certainty Act, which included a version of Padilla’s Protect Innocent Victims of Taxation After Fire Extension Act to extend tax relief for wildfire victims. Last month, Padilla and Senate Environment and Public Works committee members introduced the bipartisan Wildfire Emissions Prevention Act (WEPA) of 2026, which would make it easier for states and communities to use prescribed fires to prevent wildfire emissions, protect ecosystems and wildlife habitats, and make American forests and communities safer, healthier, and cleaner. Last year, Padilla introduced the Fix Our Forests Act, bipartisan legislation to combat catastrophic wildfires, restore forest ecosystems, and make federal forest management more efficient and responsive.

Full text of the letter can be found here below: 

Dear Chair Selig, 

We write to express concern regarding the disturbing news that prediction markets are now offering event contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires. Prediction markets have been enabled to expand rapidly, increasingly inviting speculation on war, political violence, disasters, and public emergencies that raise ethical and public policy concerns. These markets risk creating perverse incentives, undermining public trust and commodifying human suffering in ways that warrant careful scrutiny. 

Recent public reports have highlighted how Polymarket—the largest prediction market platform in the world—accepted more than $1.2 million in bets surrounding the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025. These fires devastated the Los Angeles area, claiming the lives of 31 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures. Another report even spotlighted the launch of a new prediction market platform that accepts only simulated bets on wildfires in California and whose slogan boasts, “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.” 

Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit. There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading. 

As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted betting on wildfires. While these bets appear to be offered only on the offshore Polymarket site, it is only a matter of time before other U.S. based Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) try to offer these. The CFTC must lead the charge to rein in these contracts in the U.S. and offshore and put in place common-sense guardrails to prevent people from profiting as wildfires threaten communities. 

As such, we request you provide answers to the following questions by August 14, 2026: 

• Is the CFTC considering prohibiting DCMs from offering event contracts on wildfires as part of the rulemaking process currently underway, given they are against the public’s interest? 
• Does the CFTC have any plans to curb bets on wildfires on prediction markets in the United States? Does the agency have plans to address these contracts being offered on offshore markets? 
• Does the CFTC believe event contracts offered on the following wildfire-related events are in the public interest:  
  • How long would a wildfire last? 
  • How much would a wildfire destroy? 
  • How much would a wildfire grow by? 
• Does the Commission have guidance or planned enforcement related to these wildfire event contracts? 

Thank you for your attention to this matter, and we look forward to hearing from you. 

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